Novogratz: Cryptocurrency Market Will be ‘Largest Bubble of Our Lifetimes’

by | 27 September 2017

Cryptocurrency

A former hedge fund manager at Fortress Investment Group is, reportedly, looking to create a $500 million hedge fund focusing on cryptocurrency and blockchain.

Mike Novogratz, the former manager at Fortress Investment Group, is investing $150 million of his own money. An additional $350 million is expected to be raised by January, 2018, through outside avenues, reports Bloomberg News.

If true, the Galaxy Digital Assets Fund would represent the biggest of its kind. Not only that, but it would illustrate Novogratz’s aggressive move into the sector, to date.

Despite the fact that he didn’t specify whether he’s raising a fund, he did explain why he’s taking part in what he called ‘the largest bubble of our lifetimes.’

He says:

“This is going to be the largest bubble of our lifetimes. Prices are going to get way ahead of where they should be. You can make a whole lot of money on the way up, and we plan on it.”

Investing in Bitcoin

Novogratz made headlines in April when he revealed he had put 10 percent of his net worth into bitcoin and ethereum.

At the time he declined to reveal how much his net worth was. However, he claimed that it was ‘the best investment of my life.’ In April, bitcoin was trading over $1,200. Fast-forward to September and bitcoin’s price topped the $5,000 mark on the 2nd.

Yet, shortly thereafter, it’s price plunged 30 percent as China’s ban on initial coin offerings (ICOs) and a crackdown on domestic digital currency exchanges impacted the market’s price.

Novogratz explains that he sold at the right time.

“I sold at $5,000 or $4,980. Then three weeks later I’m trying to buy it in the low $3,000s. If you’re good at that and you’re a trading junkie, it’s a lot of fun.”

It is because of the market’s fluctuating prices that Novogratz compares it to the Wild West. He believes that the cryptocurrency market needs more regulation and that some ICOs are simply fraudulent ‘get-rich-quick-schemes.’

Concerns Still Remain

While Novogratz appears keen to explore the cryptocurrency market further, most large establishments are steering clear. For many, concerns about its unregulated nature and its volatility remain.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, recently added his voice to those against bitcoin when he called it ‘a fraud.’

At a news conference, the banker claimed that the digital currency ‘won’t end well’ and that it will eventually blow up.

He said:

“It’s worse than tulip bulbs. It won’t end well. Someone is going to get killed. Currencies have legal support. It will blow up.”

He also mentioned that he would ‘fire in a second’ any employee found trading in bitcoin. Interestingly, questions have been raised about the fact that JPMorgan handles bitcoin-related client trades.

Another figure that has been against bitcoin is Howard Marks, founder of Oaktree Capital Management. At the end of July, Marks claimed that digital currencies ‘aren’t real‘ in a 22-page memo to clients. At the time, he said people were investing in the market for fear of missing out. Additionally, he claimed that digital currencies are ‘nothing but an unfounded fad or perhaps even a pyramid scheme.’

Interestingly, he has since changed his view on the market. As a result, in a new 11-page memo to clients he admits that bitcoin could become a legitimate currency. Yet, even though he considers himself ‘less of a dinosaur’ regarding his understanding of the currency, he’s still not investing in it.

He wrote:

“I still don’t feel like putting my money into it, because I consider it a speculative bubble.”

Seeing Opportunity Where Others Smell Fear

For Novogratz, though, the cryptocurrency market presents the perfect opportunity. And it’s one that he wants to be a part of.

He explains:

“In a lot of ways, this is a market like any other market. You see the psychology of fear and greed in the charts the same way you’d see it in charts of the Indonesian rupiah or dollar-yen or Treasuries. They’re exaggerated because of less liquidity and because you can’t get short.”

Interestingly, Rainer Michael Preiss, executive director at Singapore-based Taurus Wealth Advisors, said that CEOs of major U.S. banks are ‘probably afraid‘ of bitcoin and the blockchain.

In a report, he said:

“Of course, if you run a very large U.S. bank, most probably you are afraid of blockchain and bitcoin.”

This is understandable considering the amount of wealth they control. However, Preiss believes that cryptocurrencies are becoming a viable alternative to people because of a bank’s lack of transparency.

He added:

“The concerns are about the fractional reserve banking system, and the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve at $4.5 trillion, where the Fed officially refuses an audit. On the other hand, on the bitcoin blockchain, you have an audit everyday because it’s open-sourced.”

Investing in Ethereum

It wasn’t until Novogratz left his job at Fortress that he made a name for himself in the crypto market. In 2015, after seeing a friend’s startup and the success of it, he decided he wanted to become more involved in the space.

Instead of investing in bitcoin, though, he put his money into ethereum. At less than a dollar per ether, Novogratz invested $500,000 and left for a holiday to India. When he returned ether’s value has risen fivehold.

During 2016 and 2017, ether and bitcoin soared in value: ether touched $400 and bitcoin scaled $2,500. As a result, Novogratz was able to make around $250 million through the coins he sold. From then he became hooked. He believes that bubbles help to ‘fundamentally change’ the way people live.

“Remember, bubbles happen around things that fundamentally change the way we live. The railroad bubble. Railroads really fundamentally changed the way we lived. The internet bubble changed the way we live. When I look forward five, 10 years, the possibilities really get your animal spirits going.”

He now estimates that he has around 20 percent of his net worth invested in digital assets.

Despite his self-imposed exile from Wall Street after his losses at Fortress, Novogratz is keen to enjoy this venture in the cryptocurrency space. As he says, you ‘learn from your mistakes.’

Featured image from Shutterstock.